FED Meeting on July 19 2025: 96.9% Chance of No Interest Rate Hike

According to veteran trader Matthew Dixon, there is a 96.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% at its meeting on July 19, 2025. He also indicated a small 3.1% probability of a 0.25% rate cut, and zero probability of a rate hike. The prior meeting in June showed a growing sentiment among Fed officials to maintain current rates due to persistent inflation, despite overall inflation numbers cooling. The last rate cut occurred on December 18, 2024. Current economic data shows a stable unemployment rate and inflation that has moderated but remains above target, allowing the Fed to remain patient. Political pressure from President Trump for rate cuts exists, but the Fed is expected to make decisions based on data. Dixon believes a steady rate environment is moderately positive for crypto markets, as lower yields typically encourage risk-taking in assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.